Takeaways
- 2025 was a good year for many green industry firms as demand remained strong for many parts of the state.
- There are many unknowns going into 2026 that will impact green industry sales: Mixed signals within the economy, increased input costs, and the varying strength of the housing market in Georgia will play a major role.
- Green industry demand is expected to slow, with prices expected to drop to offset the decreased demand, which will result in decreased sales in 2026 compared to 2025.
The green industry—the production, distribution, retailing, and services associated with ornamental plants; landscape and garden supplies; and nursery, greenhouse, and sod growers—is highly dependent on the overall national and local economies. In 2018, the last year estimates were calculated, the Georgia green industry was ranked as the 10th-largest across all U.S. states, with a regional economic impact of $9.97 billion and employment of around 100,000 (both direct and indirect; Campbell & Khachatryan, 2020).
In 2023, the Georgia green industry had a farm-gate sales value of $1.45 billion, up from $1.28 billion in 2022, making the green industry the second-largest agricultural commodity in the state, behind only broilers (chickens). Notably, the greenhouse segment is the largest sector (ranking seventh in agricultural farm gate value at approximately $686 million in 2023), followed by field nursery ($242 million in farm gate sales), container nursery ($212 million in farm gate sales), and turfgrass (16th with $242 million in farm gate sales; Center for Agribusiness and Economic Development [CAED], 2025).
Using data from the Farm Gate Value Reports produced by the University of Georgia CAED, the ornamental horticulture industry saw upward-trending sales starting around 2014 for greenhouse and field nurseries (Figure 1). Turf and container nursery saw increasing sales trends in 2020.
Note. Values represent percent changes in farm gate value adjusted to 2001-dollar values. Data from the Georgia Farm Gate Value Report.
The overall economy is an indicator of green industry growth. Forecasting the 2025 season is extremely complex, given the number of unknowns in the economy. Economic indicators provide an idea of what 2026 will bring; however, there are mixed signals in the marketplace.
Interest rates are slightly below 2007 levels (right before the start of the Great Recession), but continue a slow decline that started in late 2023 (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, n.d.). Even as interest rates have decreased, housing starts have cooled, given the continued uncertainty about the economy. Authorized new private housing unit permits continued to stagnate, falling to prepandemic levels. Furthermore, median house listing price remained stagnant, the homeownership rate fell to 2019 levels, and the consumer price index for all goods rose 3% from September 2024 to September 2025 (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, n.d.; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025). All of these signs point to a slowing economy, though median household income has continued to increase year over year since 2021 (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, n.d.).
The combination of higher inflation, supply chain issues, and the perceptions of a weaker economic outlook may fuel reduced green industry expenditures. Prices increases should be worrisome for green industry firms, as prices are the largest driver of purchasing of many plants, though own-price (a measure of the impact of a product’s changing price on quantity demanded of that product) and income (a measure of the impact of changing income on the quantity demanded of that product) are somewhat variable between plants (Abdelmagid et al., 2016; Hovhannisyan & Khachatryan, 2016). For instance, ornamental plants are mostly price-elastic (price changes have a large impact on quantity demanded), with foliage plants being more responsive to price changes compared to other plant categories (Hovhannisyan & Khachatryan, 2016).
Another large driver of green industry product demand is the weather. Lower minimum air temperatures during the spring have been shown to decrease sales of herbs, vegetables, and flowering annuals, while increased air temperatures have increased sales. Notably, a 1-unit increase in maximum air temperature resulted in a 9% increase in herb and vegetable plant sales, while a 1-unit decrease in minimum air temperature resulted in a 6% decrease in sales. The impact on flowering annuals was larger, with a 1-unit increase in maximum air temperature resulting in a 19% increase in sales and a 1-unit decrease in minimum air temperature resulting in a 14% decrease in flowering annual sales (Behe et al., 2012).
National Weather Service projections for the winter of 2025–2026 indicate an above-average chance of warmer, drier weather for Georgia (National Weather Service, 2026). During the main growing and purchasing seasons (spring and summer), the industry should expect above-average temperatures and increased precipitation across Georgia because of El Niño conditions (National Weather Service Aberdeen, SD, 2025).
In addition to the normal factors mentioned above, other factors further compounding production include labor issues such as workforce shortages, immigration policies, and fluctuating adverse wage rates for H2-A workers. Given new policies, these factors should decrease labor bills starting in 2026. Furthermore, political issues around tariffs will potentially impact the growth and profitability of many green industry firms.
Final forecasts for 2026 should take all the above information into consideration. There will most likely be stagnant to slowing U.S. and Georgia economies in 2026. Given the increasing likelihood of a recession, the Georgia green industry should anticipate slowing demand, which will require firms to mitigate costs to remain profitable.
References
Abdelmagid, B. D., Wohlgenant, M. K., & Safley, C. D. (2016). Demand for plants sold in North Carolina garden centers. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 25(1), 28–37. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1068280500000046
Behe, B. K., Getter, K., L., & Yue, C. (2012). Should you blame the weather? The influence of weather parameters, month, and day of the week on spring herbaceous plant sales in the U.S. Midwest. HortScience, 47(1), 71–73. https://doi.org/10.21273/HORTSCI.47.1.71
Campbell, B., & Khachatryan, H. (2020). Economic impact of the Georgia green industry, 2018 (Publication AGECON-20-04-PR). University of Georgia College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics. https://agecon.uga.edu/content/dam/caes-subsite/ag-econ/documents/extension/publications/Sept%204%20Economic%20Impact%20of%20the%20Georgia%20Green%20Industry%20-%20Economic%20Impact%20Final%20aug%2028%202020%20FINAL.pdf
College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences. (2024). Insight for legislators: Georgia ag impact report. University of Georgia. https://discover.caes.uga.edu/2024-insights-for-legislators-georgia-ag-impact-report/index.html
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (n.d.). Federal Reserve economic data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
Hovhannisyan, V., & Khachatryan, H. (2016). Ornamental plants in the United States: An econometric analysis of a household-level demand system. Agribusiness: An International Journal, 33(2), 226–241. https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21488
National Weather Service. (2026, January 15). Three-month outlook official forecasts. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php
National Weather Service Aberdeen, SD. (2025). Winter outlook 2025-2026. U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. https://www.weather.gov/media/abr/sitreport/2025-2026WinterOutlook.pdf
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025, November 19). Consumer prices up 3.0 percent from September 2024 to September 2025. U.S. Department of Labor. https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2025/consumer-prices-up-3-0-percent-from-september-2024-to-september-2025.htm
